It’s back! I’ve tweaked last year’s formula for predicting NFL games and played out every game on the schedule to come up with final records for every team in the league. Last year, the method worked pretty well, with about 60 percent of teams finishing within one game (+/-) of their expected total, and about 80 percent of teams finishing within two games (+/-) of the predicted total. The formula also correctly nailed the Atlanta Falcons as the top team in the NFC, and predicted 9 of 12 playoff participants.
Here’s how it works: I’ve analyzed as many pre-season national opinions (power rankings, etc.) to come up with a rating for each team. I then plug in those rankings, give a 20 percent bump for the home team, and see which team should win each game. When matchups come up as even or very close to even, I try to split up the wins and losses to simulate some good and bad breaks over the course of the season.
Once I get to the playoffs, I figure out all the tiebreakers to determine the proper matchups, and while I still use the formula as a guide, I also analyze each team’s schedule, and try to choose the team with more quality wins as a better indicator of playoff success.
Without any further ado, here’s what I came up with for the 2011 season:
NFC
Eagles 12-4 Patriots 13-3
Cowboys 9-7 Jets 11-5
Giants 8-8 Dolphins 6-10
Redskins 6-10 Bills 5-11
NFC
Packers 13-3 Ravens 12-4
Bears 8-8 Steelers 11-5
Lions 6-10 Browns 5-11
Vikings 5-11 Bengals 3-13
NFC
Saints 11-5 Texans 12-4
Falcons 11-5 Colts 9-7
Bucs 9-7 Jaguars 6-10
Panthers 3-13 Titans 5-11
NFC
Cardinals 8-8 Chargers 11-5
Rams 7-9 Chiefs 9-7
Seahawks 6-10 Raiders 6-10
49ers 5-11 Broncos 5-11
NFC PLAYOFF SEEDINGS AFC PLAYOFF SEEDINGS
1. Packers 13-3 1. Patriots 13-3
2. Eagles 12-4 2. Ravens 12-4
3. Saints 11-5 3. Texans 12-4
4. Cardinals 8-8 4. Chargers 11-5
5. Falcons 11-5 5. Jets 11-5
6. Bucs 9-7 6. Steelers 11-5
Tiebreaker notes: The Saints beat out the Falcons for the NFC South title with a better divisional record. The Bucs beat the Cowboys for the final NFL Wild Card spot based on a head-to-head victory. The Ravens edged the Texans for the 2nd seed in the AFC and a 1st round bye based on a head-to-head victory. The Jets got the 5th seed over the Steelers based on a better record vs. common opponents.
NFC WILD CARD ROUND AFC WILD CARD ROUND
Bucs over Saints Texans over Steelers
Falcons over Cardinals Jets over Chargers
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
Packers over Bucs Patriots over Jets
Falcons over Eagles Ravens over Texans
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Packers over Falcons Ravens over Patriots
SUPER BOWL
Ravens over Packers
© 2012
